CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001)

Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters.  This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model.  This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates.

NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a3b1f
WSA version: 2.2
(Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2)

Please enter a copy of the entire notification here:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI ) ## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (ensemble) (Missions Near Earth) ## ## Message Issue Date: 2025-09-06T00:11:30Z ## Message ID: 20250906-AL-001 ## ## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

BETA PRODUCT. ENSEMBLE PRODUCT IS STILL IN DEVELOPMENT MODE. PLEASE LET US KNOW IF YOU HAVE ANY SUGGESTIONS FOR MODIFICATIONS.  

Ensemble modeling update on CME with ID 2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250905-AL-001). Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Out of 24 ensemble members (see notes section), 24 (100%) indicate impact at NASA missions near Earth. Ensemble simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2025-09-06T15:53Z and 2025-09-07T06:43Z (average arrival 2025-09-06T22:54Z). The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 97% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-8 range (minor to severe).

Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_anim_tim-den.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_arrival_Earth.gif
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085_Earth_stack.gif

## Notes:
The simulation ensemble results show the incorrect location for Parker Solar Probe and for BepiColombo.

This CME event (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001) is also predicted to impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-06T19:35Z and STEREO A (glancing blow) at 2025-09-07T07:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20250905-AL-001).

This CME event (2025-09-04T20:30:00-CME-001) is associated with a C3.3 flare from AR 14206 (N12W05) with ID 2025-09-04T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-09-04T19:46Z.

Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest.

Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided.

For the full details of the modeled event, please go here:
https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2025-09-05_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085/Detailed_results_20250904_203000_ncmes1_sims24_LAHAINA085.txt



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